On The Prospects Of Winning Or Losing In A General Sense



The Oasis Reporters


December 1, 2018

The prospects of winning or emerging victorious in any human endeavour is all that motivates people to go out there to compete or contest. Winning has a twin, called “losing” and the two are always together as is natural with twins but usually would go their separate ways at the end of the contest.


Most times, we are always carried away by the desire to win such that we fail to even consider the possibility of losing. Winning in the end is as much a possibility as losing. The 3 (Ps) Proper, Prior, Preparation before any contest provides a contestant the confidence to go out to take  part. In a contest of wills ( War) the legendary military strategist, Tsun Tzu warned that it is of utmost importance to know yourself and to know the enemy/opponent well, in which case you are assured of victory. In the event you know only yourself but know not the enemy/opponents, for every victory, you will have a defeat. Where you know not neither yourself nor the enemy/opponents, you will be a complete fool to join in a contest of wills ( War ) because you are almost certain to be defeated.

The most important consideration in any contest without precluding politics is the OPPONENT. Only smart people ever pause to even consider the possibility of losing in a political contest as in any other.


Winning in a way can be deceptive as it takes the winner’s mind far away from that possibility of losing. Winning all of the time has the propensity of making someone think they are invincible. For all that I know and care, seeing oneself as invincible because one wins always is the very height of self delusion.


In boxing, the likes of Mike Tyson and the Klitchko brothers were too used to winning by knockouts that they hardly contemplated when defeat might come but it did.


Localizing this discourse to the Nigerian political space, could it not be true that this kind of self delusion is what informed the humiliating defeat of the PDP in the 2015 general elections?


Do you also recall that the PDP boasted that it was going to be in power for 60 years? Winning all of the time is what breeds complacency. When a contestant suffers a defeat, the most rational of endeavours is for such to get back to carry out a post mortem as to determine what could have informed or was responsible for the defeat.


If the post mortem is not evasive of basic realities, it surely should highlight what caused the loss in which case the necessary remedial measures can then be considered preparatory to a future engagement.

The politics of Kaduna State is on my mind as I pen this post. Again, the PDP is at the centre of it all. Having enjoyed being in power for  almost 2 decaded, the PDP had to struggle to come to terms with the loss of political power in 2015.


It is almost 4 years since 2015 and Kaduna State has had a raw deal in the hands of the El Rufai dictatorship. The almost total exclusion of many APC faithfuls concomitant with the many brazen anti-people policies of the regime is now coal in the furnace intended for defeating the dictatorship come next year’s elections. Removing El Rufai democratically is as lawyers would say, “a settled Issue”. I understand this conclusion as identifying the strategic end but how then do we achieve this?

That is the million dollar question. Much as our people are looking forward to casting the votes that will terminate the reign of the dictatorship, there exists this palpable danger which if not carefully managed and solved could end up pulling the carpet from the feet of all of us.


How then could this be a real possibility?  It is common knowledge that the PDP in Kaduna State as things currently stand is hostage to some visible and invisible characters who are responsible for serially manipulating the party to achieve their narrow self interest.  I find it so deeply intriguing that a single individual is bent on settling political scores with his perceived opponents at the expense of party internal cohesion.

How else would this individual have ensured that his anointed got the party’s ticket to contest the governorship of Kaduna State in next year’s general election. We suspect and standing on very solid grounds that Kaduna State may surreptitiously been sold to the dictatorship in a deal designed to ensuring that a more capable person does not contest. The primaries may have come and gone but the aftershocks are not gone yet. Many questions have been raised regarding the eligibility of the PDP governorship candidate but rather than critically examining and or investigating those, some die-hard supporters of the status quo are resorting to name calling or seeking to settle this serious problem through interviews or on the pages of newspapers. This will and cannot work, in any case, some interested parties are seeking legal intervention to clear the cobwebs.

This is how the carpet could be pulled from under our feet. If it is indeed TRUE that some of the questions raised with regard to the ineligibility of the PDP governorship candidate is confirmed, yet he goes ahead to contest, let’s even say he wins, the dictatorship is certain to go to court challenging his eligibility to have contested in the first instance. If the legal challenge is upheld, the victory will be reversed in which case, the dictatorship is handed another 4 year tenure.

This pissibility makes me shiver.


The fact remains that most of the voting

population cannot appreciate the danger ahead and if for any reason it does come to pass, their votes would have gone for nought.  I am aware that many folks out there are not comfortable with this doomsday scenario but it could well come to pass and if it does the people must have the courage to live up to the very fact that they had been warned.


I have also made some provision for other people to disagree with my analysis, but I am still advising that they come out of the box and consider the realities before us all. Living inside a box cannot afford anyone the opportunity of seeing or even thinking outside of it which I believe is responsible for the myopia in the PDP ranks. Some may interpret this effort as being divisive but they are dead wrong.


The totality of the effort at  looking and thinking outside the box is intended to checkmate any attempt by the dictatorship to perpetuate itself by foul means. That the dictator himself had the audacity to declare,  openly that his re-election is a done deal, we are putting it to him that his overthrow democratically is also a fait accompli. Ours is a victory sure to come unless by our individual and collective greed decide to bungle it.


To God Be The Glory.


Written by Col. Gora Dauda (rtd)


Greg Abolo

Blogger at The Oasis Reporters.

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