Why The Economist’s Prediction On 2019 Election May Fail, For Atiku To Assume Office In May



The Oasis Reporters

December 5, 2018

Nigerians often get bemused when foreign agencies make analyses and utter predictions about Nigeria which shows their utter lack of understanding of the Nigerian psyche.

A negative prediction was once made by the United States Intelligence agencies that Nigeria will collapse as a country in 2015.
Nigerians laughed. Three years after, the bond that unites Nigerians has gotten stronger. The hidden factor that foreign agencies knew absolutely nothing about came into play and just a phone call from then President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to Muhammadu Buhari pulled Nigeria from the brink of crisis and the country forged ahead.

The Economist magazine has predicted that the opposition will collapse and Buhari will win the presidency.
There are facts that the respected magazine did not put into consideration. What brought the Buhari regime into power from its parochial province into winning after three failed attempts was the helping hand of the current opposition. Now with unrealized dreams and failed promises, they have left Buhari and gone back to their former position. Their aspirations are still there. And this time with a determined resolution that it has to be “anyone else, but Buhari”.

To achieve this, they have unimpeachable reasons and a strong resolve to make it happen.
No Nigerian is happy with Buhari’s lethargy and indecision, including his parochialism and the inability to fulfill his mandate. He has fulfilled very little part of his promises and has ruled mainly on the back of propaganda rather than professionalism to the consternation of Nigerians.

Inflation has continued to climb and even the Magazine has mentioned a double digit figure of 13.6%, social services are all but failing. Extra judicial killings have reached record heights with some state governors behaving like absilute kings with powers to redraw boundaries on the back of untraceable executions without remorse.

These and many more make Nigerians resolve to change the weak regime of Muhammadu Buhari that has been unable to inspire the fight against insurgency or tame the herdsmen militia rampaging the middle belt, whose swing votes propelled Buhari to power in 2015.

As long as people vote freely, even if the opposition were to collapse, counting the votes freely and honestly will see Buhari out of power.
With too many lives at risk and the frivolous incarceration of opposition forces arbitrarily, the non recognition of the diversity of Nigerians, inability to forge a united Nigeria, power will slip out of Buhari’s hands in February.

The Economist will eat it’s words, as it’s liberal use of the word, ‘may’, shows that it is even uncertain of what it has drafted.
In appraising Nigeria, the magazine said: “The president, Muhammadu Buhari, will win re-election in February, as a new opposition coalition may collapse before the vote”.

Nigeria has just two months before the election, even though they say an hour is long in politics. So if the opposition fails to collapse before the vote, what happens?

“Given the outlook for continuing political weakness, there is little prospect of progress in the fight against the Islamist insurgency in the north, nationalism in the oil-producing Delta and secessionism in the Biafra region”.
“Market-based reforms will languish, holding back growth yet again.” with a population set to hit 201 million”

The Economist got this point right. So who wants to stay with a government with “little prospect of progress” for another 4 years?
The Economist must be underestimating the intelligence of Nigerians.


Greg Abolo

Blogger at The Oasis Reporters.

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