The Oasis Reporters

February 15, 2019

By Greg Abolo

With the run-up to the actual presidential election on Saturday, February 16, doctored analyses are suddenly surfacing in opinions published in newspapers, just as pundits make unrealistic assertions from different angles on television and radio. Many of them are as unrealistic as can be, often informed by the owner of the medium.

One thing that is grossly misleading media analysts is the hugeness of the campaign crowds. They often do not realize that most people who are found in various stadia to witness campaigns are just sight seekers, in areas where such gatherings are probably the only form of boredom killing, or the only social gathering they may see for a long time. Many are just sight seeker crowds, curious to see the faces of the contestants. Sometimes, they are paid to come, at other times, it is just the curiosity.

I just read the state by state analysis of the likely favorites tipped to win or lose in each state in The Nation newspapers, said to belong to the All Progressive Congress, APC leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who also doubles as the campaign chairman of the Party’s Campaign Organization.

So what would one expect really ?

The paper or writer knows some obvious states where it would be more sensible to tell the truth, so that the article would have a semblance of fairness or credibility.
Therefore it mentions Anambra, Enugu, Abia, Imo and Ebonyi as States in the south east that would go to the PDP. And the article was right on target.

In the South South zone too, it mentions Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta and Cross River states as going the PDP, Atiku Abubakar way. The article is correct as well.

But they expect Edo state to fall to Buhari because of its former governor, Adams Oshiomhole who is the APC chairman. Unfortunately, the writer did not try to distinguish the reasons why the people of the state went for Oshiomhole. In believing that the highly enlightened Edo people would like a man and love his baggage, it probably got it wrong. Edo has no such philosophy of like me, like my dog. The travails of Edo state did not start with herdsmen militia killings that also happened in the state. The mass exodus of Edo people to Europe in search of greener pastures abroad because it’s economy was asphyxiated, started with Buhari’s first incursion into politics as a military strongman, 36 years ago, culminating in the General Babanginda’s military regime, Edo students led a mass uprising against the military, shouting ‘Ole, Ole’ in the 80s because they felt completely frustrated enough. Human trafficking then commenced to Europe because there were simply no opportunities at home. They know the source of the woes, and may not reward that source.
Buhari may not win majority of votes there. APC for a gubernatorial win, maybe, but not the presidency.

Akwa Ibom State is another state that has been tipped for Buhari, because of the Godswill Akpabio defection from the PDP to the APC on the heels of an EFCC pursuit. The election results would prove the analyst wrong. The Oil rich state and it’s people know what chased Akpabio to the APC. Even if his nominees follow him there, the people would show their stoic and resilient character by rejecting the charade.

Coming to the North East, the analysis gives Gombe State to the APC. This is a huge surprise and belittles the quality of the article in the eyes of those who watch the region with keen eyes.
In the first place, when the Buhari gale swept through the entire Northern Sahel region, Gombe State, often eulogized as the Jewel In The Savannah, did not fall. It remained firmly PDP. The sterling stewardship of its governor, Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo, PhD, kept it so. There was even the case of the Minority whip of the House of Representatives, Fatima Binta Bello, now a Senatorial candidate in the Gombe South election on Saturday, February 16. When she contemplated following her then political mentor, former PDP governor of Gombe State, Danjuma Goje into the APC, her constituents advised her to remain in the PDP. She obeyed, and her political profile has continued to rise since then.

Gombe State is a core PDP state, and would definitely vote for Atiku Abubakar. It is the oasis of peace in the troubled North East.

The party on October 3 lost Sardauna Gombe, Alhaji Jamilu Isiyaku Gwamna, an Hausa, who defected from PDP to APC from Gombe. Just as Bala Bello Tinka, a Bolewa from Kwami and Saidu Kumo, a Fulani from Akko, with the variegated ethnic groups of Gombe State, such poses little threat to the PDP. Many know that some of them defected because they lost out in the highly competitive PDP primary elections. Others are fleeing from the EFCC dragnet.

Senator Saidu Umar Kumo from Gombe and North East DG Atiku/PDP Presidential Campaign Council left the PDP also due to an EFCC arraignment. However, his Local Government Coordinators except the Yamaltu Deba coordinator followed him to the APC. The rest ten “Garkuwa Saidu Local Govt Coordinators for Friends of Atiku Organisation in Gombe State” remain with the PDP, and have pledged their loyalty to the People’s Democratic Party candidates from the presidential candidate, Alh. Atiku Abubakar to the gubernatorial candidate in Gombe State, Senator Bayero Nafada, the Senatorial candidates Dr. Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo for the Gombe North District and the other two districts as well as House of Representatives and House of Assembly candidates. Therefore what is the clout of Saidu Kumo without his grassroots mobilizers ?

Bala Tinka was expelled from the PDP because he had used the assumed name of “Raba Gardama” to contest the gubernatorial election under the Democratic People’s Party, DPP, while still in the PDP. Now he is in the APC, contesting under the DPP.

For the presidential poll, according to the article, “ethnic fault lines will be sole determinants. The ethnic groups in the state are Fulani (Northern part); Tangale (Southern part); Hausa, Tera, Waja, Bolewa, and Kanuri. Both Buhari and Atiku are of Fulani stock”. So who gets the edge ?
In Bauchi State, with some of the big names, leaving the APC, like Yakubu Dogara, Bala Mohammed, a Buhari win there would be reduced significantly. Though the likes of former governor Isa Yuguda have cross carpeted to the APC.

The article says that “In spite of the insurgency, Borno is still a stronghold of the APC and Buhari. The people of the state have undiluted loyalty to the president and his commitment to the war against Boko Haram has strengthened their political bond with him. The humble and unifying disposition of Governor Kashim Shettima in governing the state have also left APC more united for a straightforward victory at the polls”

And this is the surprise, because one of the planks that Muhammadu Buhari ran his election on, in 2015. A few days ago, the state governor’s convoy was reportedly attacked by Boko Haram Islamist insurgents and four security officials were killed, with scores injured. So where then is the credit or reward for his commitment to end the insurgency?

Taraba and Adamawa States will vote the PDP. Taraba was once a part of Adamawa State and it is Atiku Abubakar’s home area. He will sweep the two states.

As for Kwara state, a newspaper like the Nation will predict the worst case scenario for the PDP campaign DG, Bukola Saraki. Though, the call may be close.
Kogi is likely to vote for the PDP in protest against the drab governance of Yahaya Bello.

Benue state will vote against Buhari. This is the legacy of the Fulani herdsmen militia killings that devastated the state and a lack of soothing words from the president. The same scenario may happen in neighboring Plateau State.
Nasarawa State’s call may be close. Though the people remain largely PDP at heart even with an APC state governor. Atiku’s votes will be massive in Nassarawa North.

Muhammadu Buhari may win Niger state.

Buhari will need a hard struggle to retain Kano state in the North West. Poverty has multiplied in the state, and many blame Buhari for worsening inflation and generally high cost of living. His home state of Katsina, is highly disenchanted due to the rising insecurity there. Kidnappings for ransom has added to their woes, such that many Katsina folks go to sleep in Niger Republic every evening, then cross the border back to Nigeria in the morning. A good number of the people have now bought land and built houses in Niger Republic and they feel that their own Buhari has no solution to the gale of kidnapping in the state.
The same issue of banditry keeps neighboring Zamfara state in turmoil. The killings have been unabated and there would be massive protest votes against the president.

A local governments election held in Kaduna produced astonishing results. The APC’s grip in the state seems to have slipped, especially with the combative governance style of its governor, Nasir El Rufai that has alienated critical stakeholders and religious groups.

Kano has seen greater poverty multiplied in the lives of its people, as statistics prove , according to a caller to the BBC World Service in London that as at last November, Nigeria had 80.6m extremely poor people, which had jumped to 90.8m by December, at the rate of 6 persons sliding into poverty every hour. As the most populous state in Northern Nigeria, Kano is mostly affected and they are not going to like that fact, especially when India has exited the poorest nations group, by lifting more people out of poverty, than ever before. Whereas in northern Nigeria, the poor are getting poorer.

Kwankwaso and his Kwankwasiyya movement that made the Buhari victory possible in 2015 by generating over two million votes for him, has switched to the Atiku side.

Buhari will find it hard to keep his form active in Kano. It will go either way, because former governor Ibrahim Shekarau and Governor Ganduje are with Buhari now, this time around.

While Buhari may win Kebbi State significantly, Sokoto state might be dicey for him. Aminu Tambuwal factor remains strategic to swing it for Atiku, coupled with the fact that a popular prince of the sultanate, Sambo Dasuki remains in detention without open trial, especially as they perceive his incarceration to personal vendetta from the president, rightly or wrongly.

Jigawa state may toe the line of Kano state, where it was carved out from and vote for Atiku Abubakar massively. Atiku is said to have partly originated from the state.

Religious and ethnic sentiments made Buhari win over Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. But this time around, both leading candidates are Muslims and also Fulani. That reality is the main factor that would help split the north almost evenly in many states.

In the south western state of Lagos, the cosmopolitan nature of the commercial city will bring it’s imprint to bear on the city’s voting pattern. The fear by the other ethnic groups of “ being drowned in the lagoon” threat of the Oba of Lagos in 2015 if they don’t vote for the APC, might not hold sway this time around. The refusal of the APC ruling party under Bola Ahmed Tinubu to give the governor, Akinwumi Ambode the reelection ticket will swing many protest votes away from the APC’s Buhari.

The contest in neighboring Ogun state will be close. The influence of the governor, Ibikunle Amosun who has been denied the opportunity of presenting a successor has factionalized the party and with Titi Abubakar, wife of the PDP presidential candidate, moving from town to town all over portions of the South West, her original homeland, Buhari may get surprise shocks in the presidential poll.

The rest of the South West States of Oyo, Ondo and Ekiti may get the shock of Osun state, when the people turned against the APC for its failure in governance. The south west is the region where governors often bemoan the drop in oil revenue as reasons why they cannot pay workers their salaries. The people are determined to punish mediocrity in governance both at the state and federal levels. To overcome the shame of defeat, the APC had to adopt extra means to force a well conducted gubernatorial election in Osun state to a second round, where it was said to have been massively rigged. The case is in court.

For the APC to win the gubernatorial election in Ekiti State, strong arm tactics were allegedly used to muscle the then governor, Ayo Fayose and the gubernatorial candidate, Professor Eleka out of circulation, before they could win. The reaction of the Ekiti people against that brazen assault would speak in ballot papers.

Largely speaking, Buhari’s margin would be less, this time in 2019, as opposed to what it was in 2015 as far as the South West is concerned

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