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In A Hypothetical Political Contest Between Bola Tinubu And Atiku Abubakar, The Verdict Could Astonish

The Oasis Reporters


August 3, 2021


Atiku Abubakar (left), Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

By Romeo Ekwunife

Nigeria’s former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar is still as popular as former Lagos State governor, Bola Tinubu, easily known as Jagaban.

Atiku should not be underestimated. He is as popular and more acceptable as Jagaban (when you take the Southeast and SouthSouth into consideration).

However, what will count against him is the agitation for rotation of the presidency to the South, that is if PDP accedes to that. And I must tell you that Jagaban will have a tough way to go if votes will count, with Atiku being fielded by the PDP. Remember that Atiku actually floored GMB in the last election. Though the ruling party believes otherwise.

Let me analyze it this way: there won’t be a serious problem for Jagaban to cruise to victory for All Peoples Congress, APC if the Peoples Democratic Party PDP also fields a southerner as its presidential candidate.

But if PDP fields Atiku it will be a horse of another colour. Atiku will win because apart from securing a whopping majority of northern votes, he will likely win with a landslide in the Southeast and SouthSouth which have a grudge with Jagaban.

Jagaban can only win in the Southwest. This is because the Southeast seems to have vowed that it will rather vote for a northerner than vote for Jagaban who enthroned General Muhammadu Buhari and is indirectly responsible for Southeast’s ordeals under this government.

Also the Southeast feels betrayed by Jagaban who it thinks should have supported a southern presidency of Southeast stock since the Southwest has had a turn.

Jagaban will also lose in the SouthSouth which derides him for removing Goodluck Jonathan (GEJ) and enthroning GMB who has done little or nothing for them.

The voting history of the SouthSouth also shows that APC has no strength in presidential elections in that Zone.

Another factor against Jagaban is that he is a Muslim and a Muslim-Muslim ticket will not fly. The core North will insist on giving Jagaban a Muslim running mate.

Romeo Ekwunife is a public affairs analyst.

Greg Abolo

Blogger at The Oasis Reporters.

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